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Thursday, December 23, 2004

Seeds market report

The monsoon during July – September in Gujarat/Southern Rajasthan was outstanding, a very promising sign for the heavily irrigated, pysillium crop, which is planted end-November – December. However, the cool weather necessary for a good planting has been replaced presently by a much warmer climate, and our supplier anticipates a reduction in planting of about 25%, with a crop projection of 900 to 925 lots.

The carryover into the new season of about 300 lots will enable the total availability to satisfy global demand of perhaps 1000 to 1200 lots, but the supply-demand ratio is so close to 1 that sharp price fluctuations may occur if demand surges or arrivals slow at any time.

Prices for seeds and husks have declined to three year lows after the excellent monsoon, but the history of the Psyllium market warns us that “if it’s too good to be true…then it may indeed be too good to be true.” With the strong rupee against the dollar and strong prosperity in the Indian economy increasing marginal labor costs, there are basic upward tendencies that complement the effects of sharp trading in the seeds.

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